Over the last few weeks and months, the prevailing political condition in Australia has swung and bounced. Peter Dutton and the Liberals held the ascendency and were trending in the right direction right up to around the time ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s incursion onto the east coast and the WA election.
Conventional wisdom in the last month, however, has been that Labor is coming back, that the Coalition campaign has lacked a bit of discipline and that the contest has tightened. PollBludger’s BludgerTrack monitor has the primary vote of both major parties in the 30s, with the Coalition ahead, and the 2-party preferred, neck and neck. Campaigns will matter in this election.
The election will be fought on small target grounds, as was evident in both Labor and Liberal budget speeches this week. With no major reform on the agenda (outside of the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan), this will be an election fought at the local level – vote by vote, booth by booth, seat by seat.
The Issues
The Tax War – “modest” income tax cuts vs fuel excise cuts.
Energy – renewables vs nuclear.
Medicare – Labor will make this a credibility election.
Cost of Living – Liberals will make this a referendum on Albo’s choices that have cost them money.
Other issues will come up during the campaign – foreign affairs, defence, housing, etc.
The Pathway to Victory
Prevailing political conditions and issues are one thing, but at the end of the day, politics is about numbers. A party needs 75 seats (maybe 76, depending on who’s in the Speaker’s chair) in the House of Representatives to gain majority government. At the moment, it seems difficult for either side of politics to get to a majority. There are key seats to watch for both sides.
Here are 30 seats to watch during the campaign, and why (margins courtesy of Antony Green):
| ALP Held |
| Seat | State | Margin | Notes |
|---|
| Bennelong | NSW | -0.10% | Held by Labor, redistribution has notionally flipped the seat Liberal |
| Gilmore | NSW | 0.20% | Held by Labor, extremely marginal. Former NSW Minister Andrew Constance contesting for the Liberals. |
| Robertson | NSW | 2.30% | Central Coast region, mortgage belt. This seat will be in Dutton's proposed 'gain' column. |
| Paterson | NSW | 2.60% | Hunter region, mortgage belt. This seat will be in Dutton's proposed 'gain' column. |
| Tangney | WA | 2.80% | Traditional Liberal seat, won by the ALP in the Federal election following the McGowan landslide in 2021. |
| Chisolm | VIC | 3.20% | Redistribution has made this seat more marginal, taking in parts of traditional Liberal Kooyong and Higgins. |
| Boothby | SA | 3.30% | Flipped Labor in 2022, Liberals will be looking to gain in 2025. |
| Bullwinkel | WA | 3.30% | New seat created by redistribution. Notional Labor seat being contested by Liberal, National and Labor. |
| Aston | VIC | 3.60% | The first seat since 1920 to be won by a government candidate off the opposition. Liberals want revenge. |
| Parramatta | NSW | 3.70% | Coalition Campaign HQ will be based here, gives you an idea of the importance of this seat. |
| Reid | NSW | 5.20% | Liberals held between 2013-2019. Will want to regain this mortgage belt seat. |
| Werriwa | NSW | 5.30% | Hard seat for the Liberals but again, mortgage belt strategy indicates this is important to them. |
| Eden-Monaro | NSW | 6.20% | This is a bellwether seat (always swings with government). A key part of either side's path. |
| Macquarie | NSW | 6.30% | Western Sydney heartland. Mortgage belt. Multicultural. A bit going on. |
| Lib / Nat Held |
| Seat | State | Margin | Notes |
|---|
| Menzies | VIC | -0.40% | Held by Liberal, redistribution has notionally flipped the seat Labor |
| Deakin | VIC | 0.00% | The most marginal seat in the country. |
| Sturt | SA | 0.50% | The fifth most marginal seat in the country. |
| Casey | VIC | 1.50% | Liberal since 1984, on shrinking margins. Labor would consider this a huge win. |
| Cowper (v IND) | NSW | 2.40% | Independent vs Nationals MP. Losing this would seriously dent the Liberal and National path to government. |
| Bradfield (v IND) | NSW | 2.50% | Independent vs Liberal MP. Losing this would seriously dent the Liberal and National path to government. |
| Longman | QLD | 3.10% | Queensland has been the Coalition's stronghold in the last three elections, inc. the 2019 Morrison Miracle. |
| Bonner | QLD | 3.40% | Queensland has been the Coalition's stronghold in the last three elections, inc. the 2019 Morrison Miracle. |
| Wannon (v IND) | VIC | 3.70% | Regional Vic seat under threat from a Teal Independent. |
| Other Held |
| Seat | State | Margin | Notes |
|---|
| Curtin (v LIB) | WA | 1.30% | The most marginal Teal seat, being contested by strong Liberal candidate Tom White. |
| Kooyong (v LIB) | VIC | 2.20% | Monique Ryan has had some challenges and with a small margin may have a race on her hands. |
| Ryan (v LNP) | QLD | 2.60% | The Greens' most marginal seat, after the 2024 Queensland election, this is within reach for the LNP. |
| Monash | VIC | 2.90% | Russell Broadbent lost preselection, quit the party and will run as an independent. |
| Brisbane (v LNP) | QLD | 3.70% | After the 2024 Queensland election, Liberal Trevor Evans will feel he has a shot here. |
| Indi (v LIB) | VIC | 8.90% | Even though there is a big margin, this is an epicentre for the renewable energy vs agriculture debate. |
| Calare (v IND) | NSW | 9.70% | Nationals MP is now an independent, there is Climate 200 Independent and a National. Fireworks. |
The Verdict?
My view is that there is not enough to get either party to majority government. It is more likely, in my view, that Labor will form a minority government after this election than not.
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